CLIMATE CHANGE INFOGRAPHIC 2105 CODE
We make this platform publicly available in an effort to spur research collaboration and support decision-making, with segment level physical and socioeconomic input characteristics provided at, source code for this dataset at, the modeling framework at, and model results at. Under the highest SLR scenarios modeled, this value ranges from $400 billion to $520 billion. We find annual global SLR costs of $180 billion to $200 billion in 2100 assuming optimal adaptation, moderate emissions (RCP 4.5) and middle-of-the-road (SSP 2) socioeconomic trajectories. Using this platform, we evaluate costs across 110 possible socioeconomic and SLR trajectories in the 21st century. Our approach accounts both for uncertainty in the magnitude of global SLR and spatial variability in local relative sea level rise. In this paper, we present a modular open-source platform designed to address this need, providing end-to-end transparency from global input data to a scalable least-cost optimization framework that estimates adaptation and net SLR costs for nearly 10,000 global coastline segments and administrative regions. To date, several impact models have been developed to estimate global costs of SLR, yet the limited availability of open-source and modular platforms that easily ingest up-to-date socioeconomic and physical data sources limits the ability of existing systems to transparently incorporate new insights. Kopp, and Solomon Hsiang), April 2022.Ībstract: Global sea level rise (SLR) may impose substantial economic costs to coastal communities worldwide, but characterizing its global impact remains challenging because SLR costs depend heavily on natural characteristics and human investments at each location-including topography, the spatial distribution of assets, and local adaptation decisions.
(with Nicholas Depsky, Ian Bolliger, Daniel Allen, Jun Ho Choi, Michael Delgado, Ali Hamidi, Trevor Houser, Robert E. DSCIM-Coastal v1.0: An Open-Source Modeling Platform for Global Impacts of Sea Level Rise.These results suggest a scale of innovation, cropland expansion and/or additional adaptation that might be necessary to ensure global food security in a changing climate.
We estimate global production declines 5.8 x 10^14 kCal annually per 1C rise in global mean surface temperature (4.6% of current production or 130kCal/person/day, per 1C p < 0.001). Global damages are dominated by losses to modern-day breadbaskets that currently exhibit limited adaptation due to favorable climates. We project that adaptation and income growth nearly halve global losses at end-of-century, but substantial residual losses remain for all staples except rice. Here, we empirically estimate the net impact of producer adaptations around the world using longitudinal data on six staple crops spanning 12,658 sub-national units, capturing two-thirds of global crop calories. Revise and Resubmit, Nature.Ībstract: Climate change threatens global food systems, but the extent to which adaptation will reduce losses remains unknown. McCusker, Terin Mayer, Ishan Nath, James Rising, Ashwin Rode, Jiacan Yuan), November 2022. Gergel, Trevor Houser, Solomon Hsiang, Amir Jina, Robert E. (with Andrew Hultgren, Tamma Carleton, Michael Delgado, Diana R. Estimating Global Impacts to Agriculture from Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation.(with Christian Leuz and Patricia Breuer), March 2023. How Large are Corporate Carbon Damages?.(with Christian Leuz, and Patricia Breuer), Science, 2023 381: 837-840. Mandatory Disclosure Would Reveal Corporate Carbon Damages.Moving Toward Evidence-Based PolicymakingĬLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SOCIAL COST OF CARBON.The Costs and Benefits of Environmental Quality in the U.S.
Energy and Environment in Developing Countries.Climate Change and the Social Cost of Carbon.Click on the names below to reach each category. Data, code, and working paper versions or appendices with additional results are available for selected manuscripts. This page contains papers listed by category.
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